Yesterday I mentioned how most of the time the “extreme” model solution is rarely the one that verifies. This looks like it could be one of those times where the more out there solutions winds up coming to fruition.
Last night all of our computer models have trended colder. Some substantially so. That trend has continued this morning with the 12z NAM. Here’s a look at the NAM by midday tomorrow which shows a band of mid level lift (the color shading) in the comma head of the storm. In addition the red line and yellow line are the critical thickness values for low levels and mid levels, respectively.
As you can see the bullseye for wintry precipitation where the lift, mid level cold, and low level cold coincide right over Connecticut. Other computer models including the Euro, UKMet, and GFS have similar depictions. At this point the best chance for accumulating snow (1″ or 2″) is in the northeast hills of Tolland and Windham Counties. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a coating or inch of snow in some valley locations too depending on exactly how cold and how much precipitation comes down.
Most people won’t see any accumulation but most of us will see some snowflakes and sleet pellets in the air on Monday.