In the past I’ve talked about the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and how important it can be in our weather. The MJO is a wave that progresses west to east across the Indian Ocean into Indonesia and eventually the Pacific. Certain phases of the MJO can indicate the potential for hurricane growth in the Atlantic or even temperature anomalies in New England.
The current MJO wave is exceptionally strong with a ton of convection (thunderstorms) over Indonesia. This wave is progressing quickly and may enter phase 6 by the end of the week. Generally a phase 6 MJO wave in October (particularly one of such a strong amplitude) indicates the potential for a deep trough of low pressure over the northeast and our computer models are showing that, and then some!
All of our computer models (ECMWF, UKMet, GGEM, and GFS) are now developing a very unusual intense October nor’easter off the mid Atlantic coast. Thankfully tides this week are astronomically low so coastal flooding probably won’t be a major problem. The 00z and 06z GFS have some really wild looking soundings and high wind potential for Friday morning but these things typically underperform and tone down as we get closer to the event. Something to watch for, regardless.