Earl’s Track Pulls Left; Cape Cod Could be in Trouble

Overnight our computer models trended a little closer to the coast. The National Hurricane Center track jogged left as well. As I mentioned yesterday, the initial track was so far east that even jogs closer to the coast would still not bring hurricane force winds to Connecticut. At this point there is no reason to expect hurricane conditions in Connecticut, though the threat for tropical storm force winds has gone up a bit in New London County.

If a more western solution verifies and the storm cuts over Cape Cod we may even see hurricane watches/warnings posted for Connecticut but chances are the impacts won’t be any worse than a bad nor’easter in terms of wind. Hurricane Edna in 1954 tracked over Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket as a category 2 storms and brought 40-70 mph winds to Connecticut. Those kind of winds are common here following a strong winter storm!

It will be important to watch additional trends. Though this is not forecasted by any model, a track close to Hurricane Bob’s in 1991 (near Block Island and Newport) would make things much worse in the state. At this point I doubt that happens but it’s something to keep in mind.

With a track over the Cape we would likely see some heavy rain. 2″-4″ is possible in eastern Connecticut if one of the more western solutions verify. Remember that winds on the western side of hurricanes at this latitude tend to grossly under perform which is good news for us given the expected path.

Around midday we will have a lot more information as the next round of major computer models comes in.

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