Earl Likely to Miss

The westward jog in computer models we saw Sunday and Monday was a bit concerning but as expected the wobbles west have stopped. Almost all of our models have come into good agreement tracking the storm to just southeast of Nantucket by Friday evening. There is not one model now or in the last 5 days that has brought Earl anywhere west of the Cape Cod Canal!

I’ll be brief about the reason but it seems as if an area of low pressure in Labrador and Quebec, Canada will be sufficiently strong to keep the jet stream roaring from west to east. In essence the low pressure will not allow the jet stream northeast of us to buckle and that will force Earl more and more east the further north he gets.

Clearly things can change with an 84 or 90 hour forecast but even if we start seeing a jog back to the left it would likely be much too late to bring hurricane conditions to Connecticut. It’s important to remember that when storms get to our latitude (and start racing north) they become quite lopsided. Almost all the rain from a hurricane falls left of the storm’s path while almost all the wind blows along and right of the storm’s path.

I see no reason to disagree with the Hurricane Center forecast for Earl that brings the storm about 100 miles south of Nantucket at the closest path. This could bring strong winds to Cape Cod but won’t do much here in Connecticut. Even if the storm tracked over the Cape which is not expected the impacts would be much less than a solid winter-time nor’easter (and there won’t be any snow with this one!).

Ryan

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