I want to be clear off the bat that the odds of Earl hitting Connecticut are very low. As of right now the vast majority of our computer models take the system well east of us. The closest model, the Euro, brings Earl over Nantucket Sound with a direct hit on Nantucket and Chatham. Still this storm is of interest and will likely garner a lot of blog interest over the coming days.
Here’s the forecast from the NHC for the next 5 days. Obviously by 2 a.m. Friday Earl is in a very interesting location. With a digging trough over the Great Lakes my interest is definitely piqued. At this point in order to see a more serious hit the storm would need to track closer to the North Carolina Outer Banks so when it’s shoved north-north east it’s far enough west to still clip southern New England.
The second thing we’ll need to happen is the trough over the Great Lakes (which I blogged about yesterday) to be sharper, deeper, and less progressive. What I mean is that it needs to dig further south toward Memphis and have a more south to north flow over the northeast as opposed to southwest to northeast.
This kind of scare seems to happen every year or two with a storm out in the Atlantic that has some potential. Since Hurricane Bob every storm that seemed like it may hit (remember Edouard, ugh) has trended offshore at the last minute.