Watching Earl

Danielle is a goner. She’s heading north toward cooler waters and eventually toward Europe. Earl, however, is strengthening and appears ready to give the east coast a scare. As I posted 48 hours ago we were going to have to watch Earl’s track through the weekend closely. It appears that Earl will remain far enough south in the short term to miss the big trough that’s picking up Danielle.

Now that it appears Earl will miss that weakness it shouldn’t have much of a problem moving toward the east coast. The GFS and Euro show the storm just off the Outer Banks and racing north and northeast from there. The Euro brings the storm close to Cape Cod and the Islands.

The digging trough over the Great Lakes in the Euro solution will not be enough to capture Earl as currently depicted. If that trough is a little deeper and a little sharper (i.e. extends further south toward Memphis or the curvature becomes much more significant) then Earl could pay southern New England a visit.

The Euro is by far the most dramatic depiction. Most models show an even flatter/weaker trough over the northeast and Great Lakes will keep Earl even further offshore. Keep an eye on the trough to the west as it will be an important piece to the puzzle. If the Euro turns out to be right and other models start trending stronger then I’ll get more interested. As of right now most signs are still pointing toward a “fish storm”.

Ryan

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