A Busy 48 Hours of Weather

Once again I missed a tornado while on vacation. This time it was waiting for the ferry on Block Island. A couple weeks ago it was stuck on the tarmac in Newark during a ground stop when Bridgeport was it. A few years ago it was driving down to D.C. during the Greenwich F2.

But I’m back now and have a lot of weather shifts coming up at the station through mid August and the weather looks like it will remain busy right off the bat. Today will be a wet day as a warm front slowly works through. Isolated severe storms are possible later today in western Connecticut if the warm front can move through fast enough. This seems to be a low probability event.

Behind the warm front it gets super hot and sultry and uncomfortable tomorrow. Here’s the GFS and NAM MOS for today, tonight, and tomorrow. Tomorrow’s forecast temperature and dew point is on the right side of the image.

95 and 98 on the GFS and NAM, respectively, for tomorrow. Ouch. With dew points in the low to mid 70s heat index values could exceed 105 degrees in some towns.

Besides the high heat and humidity Saturday, severe storms appear possible late in the day as well. It’s unclear the amount of shear that will be present (important for storm organization and rotation) but with such high heat and humidity there will be a good deal of instability. If the instability/shear can be juxtaposed late in the day a significant severe weather event is possible.



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