As expected thunderstorms have developed to our northwest across eastern New York. A line of storms as of 4:30 p.m. from Monticello, NY to Pittsfield, MA is slowly oozing toward Connecticut. At the same time a very unstable airmass has developed over the state with surface based CAPE values >3000 j/kg.
Wind shear in the atmosphere remains quite weak so the storms are sub-severe so far. Weak wind shear prevents thunderstorms from organizing and keeps updrafts from sustaining themselves. A high CAPE/weak shear environment produces “pulse” type storms that pulse up quickly and fall apart just as quickly.
Later this evening, after 6:30 pm or so, I do expect thunderstorms to move into Connecticut. Some could be severe but most will not be. Expect some locally heavy downpours and briefly gusty winds as the storms move into CT.
Any storms will be welcome and it’s extremely uncomfortable outside. Heat index values are at 100 degrees or higher at HFD and BDL with dew points in the mid 70s. Ugh!