It’s been an extremely warm and humid July thus far. In fact, so far July 2010 is 4.8 degrees above normal. The warmest July ever, in 1994, featured a monthly anomaly of +3.4 degrees.
Though the extreme heat seems like it’s not coming back the next 2 weeks I see no signs of below normal temperatures. Here’s the 8-10 day height anomalies from the Euro and GFS.
All of our models are showing a persistent southeast ridge (typical this time of year) but the ridge axis is further west. This keeps the heat and humidity nearby (and likely over us some of the time), but also lowers heights over the northeast. The lowering heights and northwest flow will promote an active weather pattern is frequent cold fronts that will temporarily low the humidity after occasional rounds of storms. It’s possible we could see some active severe weather days with this weather pattern in place.
I think by the end of the month we’ll drop our huge monthly positive temperature departure down to +3º or maybe even a hair lower. Still, it could be one of the warmest July’s on record. Our 90º day count will likely reach our seasonal average (18) by next week.