Elevate Severe Risk Today

Certainly not a huge threat but there are some signs that severe thunderstorms could develop later today. Here’s a look at the 06z NAM CAPE forecast for 00z today (8 p.m. tonight) courtesy of WeatherTAP. The green shading is generally CAPE values >1250 j/kg while the yellow and orange is CAPE >2000 j/kg. The models are indicating we get pretty unstable later today which should be sufficient for severe thunderstorms.

There’s a weak shortwave that will slide through southern New England this evening. This is at 06z or 2 a.m. tonight with the vorticity (red shading) overhead and down the I-95 corridor. The best zone of lift is ahead of this band of vorticity and that slides through around 00z which coincides with the higher instability values on the NAM.

In addition a weak cold front/lee side trough will be in the vicinity at that time. With modest shear and even a bit of low level veering on the hodographs I do expect an elevated severe weather threat today. The storms will likely move through a bit later than we typically see… I’d say 4 p.m. through 11 p.m. would be the target zone for severe weather today.

At this point the weekend looks great. Slight chance for a storm on Saturday but most of Saturday and Sunday will be perfect beach weather. Enjoy!

Ryan

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