Heat? Yes. Brutal? Maybe.

The severity of next week’s heat wave is still a bit up in the air. There will be an upper level low pressure system in the open Atlantic later this weekend and early next week that will determine how brutal this heat wave becomes.

Here’s a look at the 0z GFS for 12z Monday. Notice how close the low is to the New England coast. In fact it’s just south of Nova Scotia and we are clearly under its influence. The outer 582 dm height line scrapes eastern Connecticut. This results in cooler upper level temperatures and prevents the true heat from building in to southern New England. Monday afternoon 850mb temperatures reach +18c in Connecticut which is probably just around 90 degrees (barring too much cloud cover).

The 0z Euro, on the other hand, is an extreme torch with the upper level low much weaker and further east. This minimizes the low’s impact and allows the “death torch” as some weather geeks are calling it to move in. You can see the low is south of the eastern tip of Nova Scotia and the ridge to the west is flexing its muscle and we are barely under the influence of the upper level low and that allows 850mb temperature to soar! In fact the Euro has 850mb temperatures of nearly +22c which would support temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. The Euro just gets warmer from there with 850mb temperatures spiking at +25c which is unheard of and would threaten to make this a memorable heat wave.

If the Euro is correct this heat wave could rival the 2001 heat wave across Connecticut. Today, I’ll be looking at the Euro and GFS to see any trends in any direction with the upper level low. If we see a weaker/further east upper level low like the Euro has then the torch is on if not it’s a couple 90 degree days with big humidity. Either way a week of a/c days are on the way.

What is Connecticut’s most intense heat wave? Probably July 19-21, 1991 when BDL had consecutive 100 degree days.

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