The signs that we’re entering a fairly significant heat wave are growing. At this point it looks like the warmest weather will occur Sunday through Tuesday, though it’s possible Wednesday may be thrown into the mix.
Generally, the hottest days in Connecticut feature 850mb temperatures above 20ºC. For example, a particularly brutal heat wave in August 2001 included temperatures of 98º, 98º, and 102º August 8th, 9th, and 10th. The temperature of 102º on August 10th was the warmest temperature ever recorded at BDL. Here are the 850mb temperatures, 850mb wind speed/direction (estimated from local RAOBs) in Connecticut for those days.
- August 8th – 19ºC / 290º @ 20 knots
- August 9th – 23ºC / 230º @ 20 knots
- August 10th – 20ºC / 250º @ 20 knots
There are other factors to consider too which are very important including wind direction, mixing depth, and cloud cover. In general though, 850mb temperatures give us a first rough guess with temperature forecasts. Here are the forecast temperatures from the 00z Euro and the 00z GFS.
- Sunday… Euro: +20ºC / GFS: +19ºC
- Monday… Euro: +20ºC / GFS: +20ºC
- Tuesday… Euro +21ºC / GFS: +19ºC
- Wednesday… Euro +23ºC / GFS: +19ºC
If temperature forecasts stay this warm, especially the Euro’s forecast, skies remain relatively clear, and winds remains westerly and offshore, then a major heat wave is possible with temperatures approaching 100º.