Watching the Caribbean

The last system I talked about, 92L, didn’t do much of anything. As is sometimes the case with these things the storm didn’t get organized fast enough and strong shear ripped the storm apart.

Today, there’s an area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave in the Caribbean south of Hispaniola. It remains very disorganized but conditions appears somewhat favorable for development.

The storms low level circulation appears to be displaced from the best convection so even though the atmospheric conditions are becoming more favorable it still may not develop into a depression. A more organized storm would feature the low level circulation under the strongest convection/thunderstorm activity.

Here are the morning consensus model tracks for this storm. Most of the models take the storm on a northwesterly heading toward the Yucatan Channel or the western tip of Cuba and then into the Gulf of Mexico. Obviously with the ongoing environmental catastrophe in the Gulf the possible development and potential track of this storm will have to be monitored very closely in the coming days.

Don’t expect much blogging over the next week…. heading off to Seattle for vacation Thursday morning. The goal in the meantime is to figure out how to shove everything in a carry-on to avoid these annoying checked bag fees.

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