It appears that the atmosphere will destabilize enough ahead of a cold front for a serious weather event to unfold. The Storm Prediction Center has us in “moderate risk” which is exceptionally rare for southern New England. Additionally, they have high probabilities for tornadoes in southern New England this afternoon and high probabilities for “significant severe” which includes wind gusts to hurricane force in storms.
Strong shear and strong lift/dynamics mean means any storm that forms could become unusually severe and tornadic. The wild card is how unstable we get. If enough sunshine develops during the late morning and temperature rise into the 80s then an extreme severe weather threat exists.
The threat for destructive winds and tornadoes is conditional on seeing enough sunshine!!
If the clouds stick around and hang tough, which is a possibility, the threat is greatly diminished. I’ll be watching this very closely through the day, but I expect tornado watches to be posted by midday for most of Connecticut.