I do not expect the Yantic River to reach the 14.9′ 1982 crest. That level seems very unlikely right now.
The river is rising at about 0.2 feet per hour currently and some of the heaviest rain of this event is overhead right now. I do expect the rate of rise to jump a bit in the next 2 hours.
As of 10:00 a.m. the river is just about at 11 feet or “major flooding” and this will continue to rise over the next couple hours.
The heaviest rain will begin to taper off between noon and 2 p.m. in New London County and the Yantic will recede shortly thereafter. Last night when the rain tapered off around 8:00 p.m. it took the Yantic River about 3 or 4 hours to crest. What that means is that once the rain stopped the river still rose for over 3 hours as all the rain ran off and into the river.
You can see the first crest last night around 11:00 p.m. followed by the additional rises this morning. If we assume a steady rise of 0.2 feet/hour for the next 5 hours that means the river will reach at least 12 feet. I do think that with very heavy rain falling right now the Yantic River may “flash” and rise faster than 0.2 feet/hour for a period of time which means additional rises.
The NWS forecast crest of 13.3 feet seems spot on to me right now. I expect a crest late this afternoon between 3:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.