2 Threats for Winter Storms This Week

Storm 1 (of 2) is on it’s way to Connecticut and for most of us it looks too warm for a significant snowfall. The American models (GFS/NAM) have been just atrocious with horrific run to run consistency and far out fantasy solutions.

The Euro/UKMet/GGEM have been very consistent and cooler in mid levels than their domestic counterparts. This is the way to go. Here’s my snowfall forecast through Wednesday:
  • 1″-2″ shoreline/valleys around Hartford
  • 2″-5″ N&W suburbs of Hartford/Waterbury
  • 5″-10″ for hilly terrain in Litchfield County and northern Tolland/Windham Counties
I think the chances for >6″ of snow for BDL/Hartford are pretty low. It’s just too warm. In the hills, however, if things stay mainly snow a foot of snow or even a bit more is possible!! At this point, that is not in the forecast.
I was a little surprised to see how conservative some of the local TV stations are being on this especially given the superb performance thus far of the foreign models that give the hills a good thump of snow.
Even though we’ll see some light off-and-on snow, sleet, and rain tomorrow the big stuff won’t show up until Tuesday after dark. As for storm 2… could be snowy for most of the state but confidence is exceptionally low right now.
Ryan
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