Forecast Woes

First… how awesome was today???? I left the gym in a t shirt and wasn’t even cold! I’m ready for spring after one or two more trips up north skiing. It’s been a long winter in the forecasting department and this upcoming week is going to be a mess to predict.

Let’s start with just one of our computer models (the NAM) and how it’s changed in a 6 hour period.

  • 12z NAM – 6″-12″ of snow on Tuesday (peaking Tuesday morning) across the interior with a heavy rain, snow, sleet mix at the shoreline.
  • 18z NAM – No accumulation of snow on Tuesday with some scattered flurries and drizzle.

Here’s another example:

  • 12z GFS – 4″-8″ of snow just about statewide on Wednesday (nothing on Tuesday) with a second burst of 2″-4″ of snow in eastern Connecticut on Thursday.
  • 18z GFS – Over 1″ of rain statewide with minimal snow accumulation Tuesday Night with no snow on Thursday (passes east).

The other global models have shown virtually no consistency. The 12z GGEM has 2 big snowstorms (over 2 feet from the Tuesday/Wednesday and Thursday storm), the 12z Euro has 6″-12″+ of snow in western Connecticut on Wednesday, the 12z UKMet has a big ‘ol rainstorm.

What’s a meteorologist to do? The cop-out “wintry mix” icon for 3 days in a row!!!


That said we do know from recent experience that the Euro has just been phenomenal this month. If I had to pick one solution I guess it would be the Euro but this is a super low confidence forecast. The Euro shows the lead shortwave (on Tuesday) damping out and producing just some minor snow. A second shortwave approaches on Wednesday, closer to the polar vortex, and spawns some strong cyclogenesis off the coast. The track of that low is going to make all the difference in the world and make this (these) storm(s) tough to forecast.

Ryan

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