Where does the 700mb low track?? That’s the big question for the Monday night/Tuesday storm.
The rule of thumb is that you generally want the 700mb to track near or just south of you and the 850mb low should be about 100 miles south. That maximizes the amount of lift in the atmosphere and keeps dry air offshore, usually.
One problem with this storm is that it’s kind of lopsided and disjointed. 9 times out of 10 a storm will tilt northwest with height. This storm has all sorts of funky things going on with the 850mb low further northwest than the 700mb on the GFS/NAM. The Euro/UKMet seem to have a more consolidated storm that passes just offshore and bring in a more significant snowstorm as the dry slot stays offshore.
The GFS/NAM are insisting all sorts of problems with this storm. They have not moved toward their foreign counterparts at all. In fact at 18z they trended further away from the foreign suite and the 21z SREF mean looks more like the far northwest 18z GFS. The 00z NAM is also disjointed with a pseudo-dry slow and a reforming 700mb low southeast of us.
Here’s my first call
- 3″-6″ for Litchfield County
- 2″-4″ for the rest of CT with somewhat less at the coast