Monday Night Snow

Wow… this is my 100th post! No surprise here but it’s going to be about snow.

Our models do show a somewhat decent light snow threat Monday night. This storm isn’t going to be a big one by any means but I think it could make the Tuesday morning commute tricky.

This is turning into a fairly classic “southwest flow event” with a storm cutting to our west. Most of the models insist on a big dry slot that will move in quickly, resulting in light precipitation totals. Also, the NAM/GFS indicate poor snow growth after an initial burst of snow with drying occurring fast above 700mb. With that in mind I think there’s only a modest probability of 4″+ of snow for most of the state. I envision this as being a 1″-3″ deal, possibly 3″-6″ on the high end if things break the right way. The one caveat here is that if the storm starts trending east (and we get the 700mb low to move east of us) we could be looking at a more important storm. I think the odds of this right now are less than 30%.

The 12z GGEM indicates a more significant snowstorm with the mid level/surface lows tracking just offshore which would prevent us from dry slotting as fast. The UKMet is closer to the GGEM with a more offshore track which would bump up snow totals. The Euro isn’t as far east and is closer to the American models. A second issue may be mix/change to rain at the coast or even inland to a period of time given the western track of the storm.

Here’s the 15z SREF guidance… notice the >50% probabilities of 4″+ of snow which is actually fairly high for this time frame. What will be important is the trend at 21z.

Ryan

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