No real changes in my thoughts from earlier today. I’ve seen some forecasts for up to 20″ but I’m not really ready to go there… and I haven’t seen enough (or any) evidence of that yet.
The NAM/GFS at 18z are very different with where they’re focusing the best lift in the atmosphere. Is it down in the boundary layer? up at 400 mb? Those kind of details will be more apparent tomorrow morning and will let us know if we’ll see good enough snow growth to forecast totals much past 15″. I don’t see anything right now to say we’ll see ratios better than 10:1 or 12:1.
With the strong closed low to the south… a developing strong surface low… and strong low level jet I think we will see a ton of moisture transport into southern New England which makes me doubt the paltry QPF forecasts on the Euro (the last holdout!). In addition, the models are not showing a whole lot of dry slot potential which makes me a bit more gung ho then I would ordinarily be.
15z SREF probabilities are high for >4″ snow statewide. High confidence in that, obviously. For >8″ of snow the probabilities are lower (over 50% at the coast, less inland).
Bottom line is I’m still expecting 8″-16″ of snow. I’m not confident enough to rule out any part of the state for the high end of those totals. Though many forecasts I’ve seen indicate less snow on the shoreline, I think that’s premature to say (outside of southern New London County). It’s too early to say where the best banding will set up (which is necessary to push towns over a foot). Most of us will see about 10″.
Here’s what I’m predicting at the climo sites:
- 9″ of snow at BDR (Bridgeport)
- 10″ of snow at BDL (Windsor Locks)