Nice Visual

It’s nice when you look at a computer model (or in this case a bunch all blended together) and they agree with your thoughts. This is the 21z SREF or Short Range Ensemble Forecast.

The upper left panel is probability of >1″ of snow, upper right is >4″ snow, bottom left is >8″ snow, bottom right is >12″ snow.
They basically show a 50% probability of >4″ of snow inland with a 70% probability of >4″ at the shore. In addition they show a 25% probability of >8″ at the shore and lower probabilities inland.
Fits in perfectly with my 5″-10″ forecast. The thing to watch with these is the trend. If the subsequent runs overnight show those probabilities increasing then it may be a warning flag to bump up snowfall totals… of course if they decrease the opposite is true.

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