Last Minute Warming Trend Reduces Snow Threat

12z NAM has come in quite warm… and the SREF probabilities are abysmal. I’m having a hard time seeing more than 1-3″ anywhere in CT at this point. MAV and MET snow numbers are still big goose eggs for BDL and SREF snow probabilities have dropped from 25%+ for >4″ of snow in the hills to 1″ of snow.

Southern stream, juicy storm trending milder… and a touch further north. Not a huge surprise here. The isothermal 0c layer is now beginning to show some sneaky warm spots as I expected.
I have no idea why the NWS issued winter storm watches… everything I’m looking at indicates the threat for >6″ of snow is much lower than it was yesterday.
The other issue is icing… I still expect an icy glaze of ZR in some areas that are able to cool down enough. This will likely happen above 700 feet.

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