Sunday/Monday Storm Looks Wet

Well as it turns out we will get a storm up here, but at this point it doesn’t look white. The trend this year (and during most Nino years) is for southern stream disturbances to be stronger/more amplified than models predict (especially when they’re out over the Pacific).

The 6z NAM/GFS have trended this thing much closer to the coast late Sunday night with a thermal profile that is either borderline rain/snow or just plain rain. I do think the 6z GFS is having some convective feedback issues (and is too far north) but the trend is important here.
I still think this has less than a 25% chance of being a significant storm (snow >6″). The best chance for that would be in the hills, but right now I think even to the Mass border this will be an ugly wintry mix which changes to mainly rain at some point.
FWIW, the 12z NAM looks even warmer. El Torcho gets an early start.

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