Well it is clear our pattern is changing in a big way. The wicked strong -EPO we’ve had since basically December 1st appears to be changing. The pattern has prevented mild, Pacific air from invading the country and keeping all of us cold is reversing and that means some milder times for the Country and the northeast. A raging -AO has allowed bitterly cold Arctic air to plunge south into the Lower 48.
There are conflicting signals on how warm we get next week (starting MLK Day) but following the cold pattern we’ve been in for basically the last 1 1/2 months “el torcho” is on its way. I expect temperatures to average well above normal Monday 1/18 through Sunday 1/24. Expect many days in the 40s, with the outside shot for a 50 degree reading.
As for the Martin Luther King Day storm, I think the odds still are low for a storm. There are some mixed signals including the European which indicates a wintry mix type storm on Monday. The GFS, however, is way suppressed with the system. I think the odds of a significant storm remain around 25 percent.
Let’s enjoy the break from winter for now!