I’m becoming more confident of much above normal temperatures next week, particularly by the end of next week (let’s say 1/21-1/23 timeframe). What makes this even more certain is the ski trip to Killington, VT I have planned on 1/23.
I think there is a fairly good chance (near 50%) of some 50º temperature readings in the 1/21-1/24 time frame. If the models don’t back off then the chance for even warmer temperatures is possible.
The big question mark in the shorter term is the Monday event. Will it stay suppressed or will the southern stream shortwave stay in tact? If it comes north this could be a nasty wintry mix. The odds of a significant winter storm are still only around 25%.