Is this another day 7 forecast phantom blizzard… or the real deal? Models agree on a fairly strong low moving through the Gulf of Mexico and either out to our south past the Mid Atlantic or right up the coast with a substantial northern stream phase. Whether or not the low in the Gulf can phase with jet stream energy north of the Canadian border is key to what this thing does. All options are still on the table.
Models have trended away from a suppressed or out to sea solution today (definite NW jog) and the 18z GFS has a substantial snowstorm or blizzard for most of southern New England. GFS ensembles have been hammering this potential, while the euro ensembles are definitely more tame.
Although I don’t think the pattern is terribly favorable for a big east coast snowstorm, there are some indications we may “thread the needle” so to speak with this one. I’d put to odds of a big snowstorm at less than 25% now, though the threat is increasing a bit. Stay Tuned!