Threat Still Exists for New Years Day Snowstorm

It’s a very tough forecast. I’ve said that on the air tonight about 3 times. We know there will be a monster storm that forms in the northeast but the question is where does it form? What track does it take?

There are 3 options still on the table like I wrote about yesterday:

  • Strong storm develops across southeastern New England or just off the coast which brings a major snowstorm (or rain to snow, but still major) to Connecticut. Most of our models have backed off this scenario but some of their ensemble members still show it.
  • A more likely scenario involves a storm bombing out and tracking along the coast with southeasterly winds flooding SNE with warm air. This would be a snow (light) to rain (heavy) back to snow (light).
  • A third scenario keeps the storm relatively weak until north of our latitude where it bombs out across Maine or the Canadian Maritimes. This seems the least likely right now.

Tonight we’ll have to watch “trends” in our computer models. Though their actual individual solutions will likely be wrong, if they all start moving in one direction or another then that will give us some idea as to what to expect. I am reasonably confident someone in the northeast sees a major snowstorm from this with near blizzard conditions. Odds are that it will be northern New England or upstate New York, but the threat is still alive here in southern New England.

Ryan

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