New Year’s Blizzard?

Some of our computer models are just showing some silly solutions for later this week. Case in point the 18z GFS which shows a near 1978 blizzard type solution (especially for eastern New England, a mere 10-20″ here with very strong winds). The chances of that happening again are about the same as a snow ball’s chance in hell.

Other computer models offer different solutions. There’s a lot that can go wrong but the pattern is relatively impressive looking. Here’s some of the possibilities:

  • Second shortwave trends stronger (late Friday/Saturday) while the first shortwave dampens/weakens a bit. This means a strong solution but also one close to the coast. Not too different from the 12z GGEM. Precip type issues along the coast but the potential for big snows inland.
  • First shortwave trends stronger and the second shortwave doesn’t get caputured by the upper level low until it’s too late. The 12z Euro has a solution like this with 3-6″ of snow late Thursday/early Friday with the second and more potent storm not closing off until it’s too late northeast of us.
  • Upper level low trends south and east and the “capture” occurs too far offshore for a big SNE snowstorm.

Obviously some of the solutions on the table indicate a major major snowstorm. The 12z Euro ensemble mean and the 12z/18z GFS are among the models that show this. Will it actually happen? Only time will tell but this could be big.

Ryan

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