I posted a few hours ago about the snow threat on Monday. If I had to guess right now I’d say a 1-2″ kind of event along the Massachusetts border, but that could trend higher if the storm tracks a bit further south. Boundary layer issues at the coast will be a problem. This is a classic case where the “2.5 degrees to the left of the 500mb vort” will work great in figuring out where the heaviest snow will fall. It’s a powerful disturbance and the column will become very cold so a we could see a powder-bomb after an early flash freeze. Could be ugly.
What’s more exciting though is what the models are showing by the end of the week. Backing up, behind the Arctic front Tuesday/Wednesday we’re talking about a bitterly cold blast. The MJO has picked up amplitude and will be solidly in phase 1/2 which teleconnects to big east coast cold this time of year. By the end of the week, another monster -NAO thanks to a major omega block that sets up over Greenland. The upstream closed low originates from what may be a major east coast snowstorm over the weekend.
The ECMWF and GFS are blowing up a 2/78 or 12/92 type blizzard as this setup unfolds. Obviously a lot can change (considering the lead shortwave is in the data sparse central Pacific) but the pattern seems favorable for a big snowstorm. The amount of high latitude blocking is incredible as are these extended -NAO patterns.