Snow began right on time in portions of Fairfield County (right around 2 p.m.) and will slowly spread north through the afternoon. The snow will initially be light (large dew point depressions) but we should moisten up the BL relatively quickly once the snow begins. Cigs are lowering across the shoreline and the radar shows the virga is now reaching the ground across the Sound.
Snowfall totals in the DC area are phenomenal. IAD reports >16″ and many spotter obs of 15-25″. As the mid level low closes more and lifts north we will see strong QG forcing spread north into SNE around midnight followed by strong frontogenesis/deformation in the comma head. Where this sets up will separate the 12″ totals from the 18″ totals. The models insist on phenomenal dendritic growth (a la 2/12/06) across central CT and some of the mesoscale models are singling out NYC-HFD as a potential zone for some higher QPF.
Everything seems on track right now to me. 8-14″+ statewide… someone will see 18″.
DCA, PHL, LGA, JFK, EWR, BDL, BDR, PVD, and BOS will all likely pick up a foot!!