21z SREF snow probabilities are just about exactly what my forecast shows. Nice to see agreement (for once). The 00z NAM trended toward a bit less QPF west of Hartford which I expected to happen because the 18z run was a big funky so far northwest of the mid level low. I think everything is on track for a solid 10″ in New Haven and 6″ in Hartford. It’s still well within the realm of possibility that this storm will tuck in closer to the coast and we could see higher totals. A few things to look out for… higher liquid:snow ratios and a strong deformation zone and mesoscale banding. There are some negatives as well. A 700mb low that tracks quite far to the southeast, very dry air over southern New England, and a storm that occludes too far south and west which results in weaker QG forcing over Connecticut.
Should be a fun storm! Enjoy!!