Post Mortem of Dec 8th-14th Call

Here’s the call I posted on 11/30 for December 8th-14th:

  • Temperature departure at BDL -2º
  • One northeast snow event thanks to developing North Atlantic blocking and active STJ
  • Major negative departures Great Lakes/Midwest/Northern Plains

Miraculously, all those forecast points came true! BDL averaged -2.1º in the 8th-14th time frame with a 6″ snow event on 12/9. The models did a nice job pinpointing snow potential and also pinpointing the potential of big cold sliding east as some of the PV broke off.

As for the call on 12/8 for December 15th-22nd:

  • Temperature departure of -4ºF at BDL
  • One winter storm during the Dec 15-22 time frame

It seems like part 2 will come true this weekend with a big east coast snowstorm somewhere in the Mid Atlantic. Whether or not it reaches southern New England remains to be seen. As for the temperature anomalies here’s what we have on the dailies:

  • Tuesday (12/15) – 35/42 (+11) /actual/
  • Wednesday (12/16) – 25/38 (+2) /actual/
  • Thursday (12/17) – 15/25 (-10)
  • Friday (12/18) – 10/29 (-9)
  • Saturday (12/19) – 12/31 (-8)
  • Sunday (12/20) – 17/30 (-6)
  • Monday (12/21) – 19/33 (-3)
  • Tuesday (12/22) – 19/31 (-4)

Which comes out to about -3.4º or fairly close to last week’s forecast. Not bad. I’ll try to work on 12/23-12/29 later today as well as some thoughts on the weekend snow event.

Ryan

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