My call for Dec 8-14 is looking pretty good right now. I had -2F for the 7 day period with a threat for a snow event. Not bad for a 7-14 day forecast. Hopefully my luck hasn’t run out as we look toward the 3rd week of December. We have some pretty strong signals, IMO, for colder and snowier than normal weather.
The first thing I’m looking at, the 00z GFS/Euro ensembles are in pretty good agreement with a strong -NAO block retrograding from east of Greenland to west of Greenland in this time frame. The details get a little iffy toward the end of the period but everything I’m looking at indicates well below normal temperatures for the northeast.
The MJO has lost amplitude and really weakened over the west Pacific. The GFS ensembles and other models indicate the MJO will see a significant upward trend with a wave migrating from phase 6 into phase 7 and 8 by the end of the period. Phase 7 is fairly neutral here in the northeast but phase 8 tends teleconnects to colder than normal weather over the northeast with a retrograding -NAO block
The signals seem fairly strong to me that we’ll see a good burst of winter over the next 15 days. Here’s my call:
- Temperature departure of -4ºF at BDL
- One winter storm during the Dec 15-22 time frame