00z NAM, GFS Ensembles, GGEM, UKMet are all trending back toward the coast with the Saturday storm. I had to post something before I call it a night (unless I decide to stay up for the Euro which is a slight possibility). I thought this was possible all along given the mess of a 500mb pattern that was developing.
The op GFS (especially since it’s east of its ensemble mean) just seems a bit too out there for me. I think our odds of an accumulating snow (>1″) are increasing IMO and I’d not put them at over 40 percent!! Whether this becomes a more significant storm remains to be seen but the complex shortwave interactions that will take place across southern Canada and the Conus make this still an unusually tough synoptic setup to grasp.
The highlight of the night is the 21z SREF (which at this far out should be VERY conservative) showing a 20%+ risk of >4″ of snow. At 72 hours that’s a very high probability.
If the Euro jumps aboard at 00z… we can start to get excited.
Also, this is a decent test for the parallel GFS (which is becoming operational in a few weeks) which has been on this storm bandwagon for a while now compared to its operational counterpart.